Struggling Eurofigher Program Poised to Get First Major Non-Gulf Client as Sale to Turkey is Approved

The export of Eurofighter fighter aircraft jets to Turkey was on June 26 approved by Germany, after Berlin had under previous administrations long blocked possible sales to its Eastern European ally. This reflects both the more permissive position on arms exports taken by the new German government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz, and Berlin’s growing focus on working with and strengthening NATO particularly on its eastern flank. As early as November 2024, Turkish Minister of National Defence Yasar Guler confirmed that Germany was preparing to greenlight the sale, stating: “We will buy 40 Eurofighter Typhoon fighter jets. Germany has been resisting for a very long time, but finally, with the positive contributions of our NATO friends Italy, the UK and Spain, Germany has responded positively.” Turkey has struggled to modernise its ageing fighter, which is comprised of some of the world’s last Vietnam War era F-4 fighters, and older variants of the F-16 reliant on obsolete avionics and mechanically scanned array radars.

After entering service in 2003, the Eurofighter has increasingly been considered a failure on global export markets, and other than a small sale of 15 fighters to Austria n 2003, the aircraft has failed to gain any non-program clients outside the Arab Gulf region. The program has recently suffered multiple successive losses in tenders across Europe when bidding against the F-35 for major contracts, with major recent losses having included Belgium, Poland, Finland and Switzerland and the Czech Republic, which were all considered leading potential clients. Although all selected the F-35 due to its significantly superior fifth generation capabilities, the Eurofighter was also frequently considered behind other fourth generation competitors such as the American F-18E/F Super Hornet.

Germany itself under a new administration in 2022 also unprecedentedly committed to F-35 purchases, despite prior administrations being highly protective of the Eurofighter and facing significant pressure from German unions not to procure American combat jets. The United Kingdom has also prioritised the F-35 despite being a partner in the Eurofighter program and itself facing domestic pressure to support local industry. Eurofighters have similarly failed to gain significant interest beyond Europe, with the aircraft losing to the F-15, F-16, and Rafale across multiple tenders from South Korea to Singapore to India. Informed sources on the fighter program, both in Europe and among its foreign operators in the Gulf, have consistently commented on its underwhelming capabilities.

Turkey previously showed only limited interest in the Eurofighter program, and was set to become a client for the F-35 to replace its F-4s and F-16s, before being barred from procuring the stealth fighters in 2019 due to its procurement of Russian S-400 air defence systems. The country’s fighter fleet has since faced an increasingly uncertain future, with Ankara having entered talks to procure Russian Su-35 fighters in 2019, and signed a preliminary deal in June 2024 to acquire F-16 Block 70/72 fighters from the United States. Subsequently in September 2024 it was reported that Turkey had made significant progress in talks with the United States on the details of plans to procure F-35s, and two months later Defence Minister Yasar Guler revealed that Ankara had formally resubmitted a request to purchase 40 F-35As. Turkey has also pursued development of the TF-X fighter, which government sources have pitched as a fifth generation aircraft, although it will still use the American F110 engines from the F-16. It is expected to fall far short of fifth generation standards due to the serious limitations of the country’s technological base. Procurement of the Eurofighter could provide a hedge against further issues with F-35 procurements or delays to the TF-X, while providing the European program with a long sought reprieve after two decades of highly underwhelming export efforts.