France Resumes Rafale Deliveries to Egypt After Eight Year Pause: Shifting Security Dynamics Leave Fleet’s Future Uncertain

The Egyptian Air Force has received its first new Rafale fighter aircraft since 2017, as the French defence sector began delivering a second batch of 30 fighters that were first ordered more than three years ago in 2021. The Egyptian Defence Ministry signed a €3.75 billion ($4.5 billion) contract for 30 Rafale fighters in May that year, bringing the aircraft’s average costs per unit down to $150 million. The contract was notable for the more favourable terms reached, with the controversial Rafale deal signed by India seeing 36 fighters ordered for around $217 each, or 45 percent more than Egypt had paid. The fact that the Egyptian procurement is reported to have been financed through a loan that will be re-paid over at least 10 years, which at a time of particularly high inflation rates means a significantly lower cost per fighter, is a further important factor in the favour of the Egyptian contract.

The Rafale notably struggled profusely to gain export contracts during its first 14 years in service, with Egypt’s order for 24 fighters in 2015 marking a turning point for the program. While the fighters ordered at the time were all delivered between 2015 and 2017, deliveries of the more recent batch have been considerably slower. This may reflect a less stringent delivery schedule agreed to to reduce costs, as well as the fact that demand for the Rafale from other clients has increased significantly. The Rafale has lost all tenders in which it has competed against the Western world’s most capable fighters the F-15 and F-35, and has consistently been evaluated to be significantly less capable than the F-18E/F. When competing against the Russian Su-30 in countries less susceptible to Western political pressure, the fighter has also consistently lost. The French aircraft’s niche remains exploiting markets where for political reasons clients cannot consider non-Western armaments like the Su-30, and for other political reasons have not been offered the F-35, with Egypt, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates all being notable examples.

The delivery of new Rafale fighters has occurred at a time when the future of the Egyptian fighter fleet has become increasingly uncertain. The Rafale is considered far from sufficient to protect Egypt’s airspace, as not only are its air-to-air combat capabilities highly limited, but those sold to Egypt are also heavily downgraded and lack access to the aircraft’s primary air-to-air weapon the Meteor missile. France has refused to export the missile to avoid compromising the qualitative edge of the fighter fleet of neighbouring Israel, as part of a broader policy adhered to by countries across the Western world. Even when fully armed, however, the Rafale’s limitations gained significant attention during the type’s first high intensity air-to-air engagements, when in early May the Indian Rafale fleet lost between one and four of its number in clashes with Pakistan, reportedly against its Chinese-supplied J-10C fighters.

At a time of Egyptian-Israeli tensions that are unprecedented in decades, unconfirmed reports indicate that the Egyptian Air Force has invested in procuring Chinese J-10C fighters and HQ-9B long range air defence systems to significantly strengthen its defences. Not only are Western systems like the Rafale downgraded, but the expectation that information on their capabilities would be provided to Israel in the event of hostilities also leaves them with only very limited utility in the event of a conflict. Egypt has faced significant Western pressure not to proceed with procurements of non-NATO standard fighter aircraft, and notably cancelled a contract to procure Russian Su-35 fighters that had been signed in 2018 under threat of U.S. sanctions. The shift in the country’s security situation, and concerns that Israel and its Western supporters are seeking to expel the population of the Palestinian Gaza Strip into Egypt, may well make the 2021 Rafale contract the last major order signed for Western fighter aircraft for the foreseeable future.