Fifteen Countries Can Launch Nuclear Attacks: Which Have the Most Powerful Arsenals?

Eighty years after the first and only use of nuclear weapons during the Second World War, the proliferation of the world’s most powerful explosives has continued to provide a growing number of countries with increasingly diverse means of launching nuclear attacks. Although the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons has restricted just five counties to owning nuclear weapons, namely the United States, China, Russia, France and the United Kingdom, a total of fifteen countries today retain at least a limited known capability to launch nuclear attacks. These include both four non-signatories of the treaty, and six countries that are part of nuclear sharing agreements, meaning they train to use either American or Russian nuclear weapons stored on their territory in the expectation that they will be provided access to these in the event that a high intensity conflict breaks out. Countries with nuclear weapons can broadly be divided into four categories depending on the sizes, capabilities and diversity of their arsenals and means of delivery. An overview of the capabilities of the world’s nuclear arsenals is provided below.

Level One: United States, Russia and China

The United States, Russia and China are currently the only nuclear weapons states with both robust nuclear triads and intercontinental range strike capabilities, meaning they deploy nuclear weapons on ground launched missile systems, from strategic bombers, and from submarines all of which can engage targets 5,600 km away. All three deploy both tactical and strategic nuclear weapons, although China’s arsenal is under a fifth the size of the other two nuclear superpowers, while its doctrine for nuclear weapons use is among the most conservative and defensive in the world. The three countries each have various strengths and shortcomings in their arsenals, with Russia deploying more warheads, a large arsenal of nuclear armed tactical ballistic missiles, and intercontinental range hypersonic glide vehicles, while the United States is the only country to deploy tactical nuclear weapons using radar evading stealth fighters and bombers. The United States suffers from growing obsolescence of arsenal of nuclear armed intercontinental range ballistic missiles, which dates back to the 1970s, while Russia has sought to counter the threat from American bombers by arming its interceptors with the world’s only known nuclear-armed air-to-air missiles.

Level Two: North Korea, India, Pakistan, Israel

North Korea, India, Pakistan and Israel all developed nuclear weapons outside the confines of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapon, with Isreal having done so with very considerable French support. All three deploy very diverse ranges of delivery vehicles, with all other than North Korea confirmed to have air-launched nuclear capabilities, while North Korea and Israel are two of just five states with intercontinental range ballistic missile arsenals. North Korea’s arsenal is in many respects the most formidable, with its ballistic missile arsenal being the world’s most diverse outside China. The country fields submarine launched ballistic and cruise missiles, intermediate range missiles with hypersonic glide vehicles, underwater nuclear armed drones, and destroyers armed with nuclear cruise missiles, and is the only one of the four to have an arsenal primarily built to strike adversaries at intercontinental ranges rather than focusing on regional neighbours. Pakistan is currently the only nuclear weapons state to deploy nuclear weapons using artillery systems, allowing for very low level tactical nuclear strikes.

Level Three: Britain and France

The United Kingdom and France both retain limited nuclear capabilities primarily deployed from their nuclear powered ballistic missile submarines. France retains a limited tactical nuclear strike capability using Rafale fighter aircraft, although the age of these jets and their lack of stealth capabilities remains a major constraint. The United Kingdom is set to restore a tactical nuclear strike capability through a nuclear sharing deal with the United States, which will allow its F-35A fighters to use American B61-12 nuclear bombs stored in Britain in the event of a full scale war. The country lacks an independent tactical nuclear strike capability. Although both countries retain independent strategic deterrents, both suffer from a very limited diversity of their means of delivery, and from serious limitations in their tactical nuclear strike capabilities.

Level Four: Germany, the Netherlands, Turkey, Belgium, Italy and Belarus

The United States currently maintains nuclear sharing agreements with five of its nuclear allies, namely Germany, the Netherlands, Turkey, Belgium and Italy, with a sixth such agreement expected to be signed with the United Kingdom. These agreements effectively allow Washington to proliferate its nuclear arsenal. They have remained controversial due its de facto creation of new nuclear weapons states, with Western analysts having widely highlighted that it violates Articles I and II of the Treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. All nuclear sharing partners rely solely on air launched B61 nuclear bombs, which are deployed by their F-16 or F-35A fighters, or in Germany’s case by its Cold War era Tornado attack jets. Belarus in 2023 entered a nuclear sharing agreement with Russia, and deploys warheads using Iskander-M ballistic missile systems. The Belarusian arsenal is expected to be diversified with Oreshnik intermediate range hypersonic missiles by the end of 2025, and possibly with a nuclear rocket artillery system. Countries in nuclear sharing agreements lack autonomy in employing their arsenals, and can be denied access to nuclear weapons by Washington or Moscow.