Venezuelan Su-30MK2 vs. American F-35A: Which Would Control the Skies?

Following confirmation of the planned deployment of U.S. Air Force F-35A fighter aircraft to Puerto Rico to support ongoing operations near Venezuela, questions have increasingly been raised regarding how the fighters may be utilised to support an American offensive against its southern neighbour as tensions continue to escalate. The deployment of F-35s was announced hours after an overflight by two Venezuelan Air Force F-16 fighters over the U.S. Navy Arleigh Burke Class destroyer USS Jason Dunham in the Caribbean Sea, and at a time when the United States is actively considering options to escalate hostilities to launch attacks on Venezuelan soil. As part this escalation, the United States government has placed a higher bounty on the head of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, following years of sustained efforts to oust him from power including a failed kidnapping attempt in 2020.

The F-35 is the only fifth generation fighter class in production anywhere in the Western world, and is considered unrivalled in its sophistication by any non-Chinese fighter class. The aircraft is heavily optimised for operations against advanced air defence networks, making it an ideal fighter to neutralise the S-300VM, BuK-M2 and S-125 systems guarding Venezuelan airspace, all of which are deployed in only relatively limited numbers. With Venezuela’s F-16s being among the oldest and least capable in the world, the greatest challenge to any attempts to attack the country by air will come from its fleet of 22 Su-30MK2 fighter aircraft, which considered by far the most capable in Latin America. A comparison of the capabilities of the rival fighter classes could thus provide valuable insight into how a potential engagement could play out.

The Su-30MK2 is one of the less capable Su-30 variants in service today, and was the last ever produced for export with a mechanically scanned array radar. This is not only significantly less efficient than modern phased array radars, and limits situational awareness, but also leaves the fighters highly vulnerable to jamming. Although the F-35’s AN/APG-81 active electronically scanned array radar is only around one third the size, the considerable discrepancy in sophistication, combined with the F-35’s far more modern electronic warfare and data sharing capabilities, and its advanced stealth capabilities, means that the discrepancy in situational awareness will be overwhelmingly unfavourable for the Venezuelan fighters. While the F-35’s radar cross section is among the lowest of any manned fighter in the world, that of the Su-30MK2 is among the highest and is considerably higher than newer similarly sized fighters such as the Su-34, Su-35 and the Chinese J-15 and J-16 which have been reshaped to provide a limited degree of stealth.

Despite being technologically significantly behind the cutting edge, Venezuelan Su-30s retain a number of advantages. Unlike the F-35, which lacks significant beyond visual range air-to-ground or anti-ship capabilities, Venezuela’s Su-30MK2s are well equipped for such missions, carrying the Kh-59M for air-to-surface roles, the Kh-31A for anti-shipping, and the Kh-31P for air defence suppression, all of which the F-35 has no equivalents to. The Su-30 is a significantly faster and more manoeuvrable fighter, and has a much longer range allowing the aircraft to loiter before engaging and patrol for extended periods. The fighters can also carry much larger weapons loads, including up to 12 air-to-air missiles, where stealth configured F-35s can carry only four. Stealth configured F-35s notably cannot carry any missiles for visual range combat, which means that should the Venezuelan fighters be able to close to within visual range, the combination of their high off boresight targeting capabilities using R-73 missiles, and superior manoeuvrability, will provide a significant advantage.

It is expected that any engagement between Venezuelan Su-30MK2 and American F-35A fighters will see the latter retain a significant edge. While other clients for the Su-30 such as Belarus, Algeria and Vietnam rely heavy on deploying the aircraft to work alongside large and highly sophisticated networks of ground-based air defences, thus allowing them to even the odds against more advanced aircraft like the F-35, the Venezuelan Armed Forces lack such a network, with its S-300 and BuK systems having been procured in only limited numbers. Although Venezuelan Su-30s deploy R-77 active radar guided air-to-air missiles that were considered cutting edge when procured in the 2000s, these are considered out of date today, and not only will they likely be vulnerable to jamming, but they will also leave the fighters at a range disadvantage if going up against F-35s armed with AIM-120D missiles, which have close to double the engagement range. While the Su-30 is far better optimised for air superiority missions, and would have a significant advantage if able to close in to engage within visual ranges, as a much more sophisticated aircraft the F-35A is highly likely to be able to achieve air dominance.