Will Russian Tu-160 Bombers Soon Return to Guard Venezuela

Amid escalating tensions between the United States and Venezuela, and at a time when options for an American attack on Venezuelan targets are widely reported to be being considered, the possibility has emerged as a longstanding strategic partner of Caracas, Russia may deploy strategic aviation assets to the country. Russia previously deployed its heaviest and longest ranged combat aircraft, the Tu-160 strategic bomber, to Venezuela, at times when the country has faced significant threats from the United States. This was first done on September 10, 2008, when two of the aircraft arrived in the country as part of military manoeuvres, and again in November 2013. Another deployment of two Tu-160s landed in Caracas on December 10, 2018, at a time when the first Donald Trump administration was actively considering options to attack Venezuela. The sharp decline in the Russian Navy’s blue water surface fleet since the end of the Cold War has left the Russian Armed Forces heavily reliant on the strategic aviation fleet to project power.

The Tu-160’s presence in Venezuela previously sent a strong show of force to the United States, with the aircraft exposing the relatively poorly defended southern border of the United States to missile attacks, while each bomber can carry up to 12 cruise missiles in standard configuration. In response to the United States’ placing of a greater bounty on the head of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, the deployment of a flotilla of at least three destroyers, a nuclear attack submarine, and 4000 Marines near the country, and the stationing of F-35A fighters in Puerto Rico, the possibility of a Russian response remains significant. Russia’s ability to station Tu-160s in Venezuela is considered a valuable strategic asset for the country, with the bombers’ Kh-101 and nuclear tipped Kh-102 cruise missiles capable of striking targets across much of the continental United States while the aircraft loiter in Venezuelan airspace.

The Tu-160 flew its first ever combat missile against a state adversary in June, when the aircraft engaged targets in Ukraine, and is is currently the only class of intercontinental range bomber in production worldwide. The first Tu-160 built in post-Soviet Russia having made its first flight in January 2022, after which production was reported in January 2023 to be set to undergo significant expansion. The fleet is expected to be expanded to approximately 70 aircraft, with the destruction of multiple older Tu-95MS/MSM strategic bombers in Ukrainian attacks on June 1 having increased the urgency of enlarging the fleet of newer aircraft. While the Tu-160’s presence could shift the calculus in Washington regarding a possible attack, a number of sources have also speculated that Moscow may have pledged not to intervene in the conflict in return for concessions from Washington over the ongoing war in Ukraine.