Russia Confirms First Su-57 Export Delivery Will Be Made in 2025: Will Algeria or North Korea Receive Them?

The head of the Russian state defence conglomerate Rosoboronexport Alexander Mikheyev on February 10 confirmed that the first foreign client for the Su-57 fifth generation fighter will receive and begin operating its first aircraft in 2025. “The first foreign customer of the advanced multirole fifth-generation fighter Su-57E will start operating this aircraft, which will be supplied by Rosoboronexport, in 2025,” he stated at the opening of the Aero India 2025 air show. This revelation follows confirmation by Mikheyev in November that an unnamed foreign client had already signed its first contract to procure the aircraft, and a statement at the time by CEO of the state run United Aircraft Corporation Vadim Badekha that “a certain queue has formed” for the aircraft had had long “attracted legitimate interest from our long-term partners.” While the identity of the client remained uncertain, reports have emerged since 2020 that Algeria has placed orders. The confirmation of the first export deliveries by the end of the year is expected to strengthen the position of advocates of a Su-57 procurement in the Indian Defence Ministry, with the Indian Air Force having long shown a significant and growing interest in the aircraft and lacking alternative options to procure fifth generation fighters.

Preceding the revelation that Su-57 exports would begin in 2025, the scale at which Russia had invested in expansion of production lines to support the program, which will allow for production of many more aircraft by 2027 than the 76 ordered by the Russian Defence Ministry, indicated that an export deal may have been reached some time ago. Algeria has shown strong signs of planning to procure the fighters, with Algerian military officials having been seen holding models of the aircraft in recent years, while a collage of the fighter was installed at the country’s defence ministry in 2020. The first Su-57 unit is reportedly intended to replace modernised MiG-25 Foxbat interceptors which were retired in June 2022.

While orders from Algeria are speculated to have helped finance the expansion of production over the past five years, larger expected from other clients, and from India in particular, are likely to facilitate significant further expansion, and possibly the opening of a second production facility alongside that at the the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant. The Su-57’s entirely unique level of combat testing among fighters of its generation is expected to be a major factor stimulating interest from foreign clients, with operations having included air defence suppression, air to air combat, and precision strike and otheroperations in heavily defended airspace.

Although Algeria is considered by far the most likely client to receive the first Su-57s in 2025, there has also been significant speculation that North Korea could acquire the aircraft. North Korean officials have shown an interest in procuring advanced Russian fighters for some years, and in September 2023 inspected production facilities and a Su-57 cockpit at the Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant. Statements from the country’s leadership have also indicated that they view the deployment of American F-35 fifth generation fighters in the region as a major threat. As Russia had come to depend increasingly heavily on North Korean support for its ongoing war effort with Ukraine and standoff with NATO, the possibility has grown that Pyongyang could leverage this dependance to press Moscow to look for loopholes in the current UN arms embargo to supply it with Su-57s, with the costs of the aircraft potentially being partly covered by the sales of military equipment to Russia. With Russia and North Korea having begun to strengthen defence ties only in 2022, however, while the indications of an Algerian order have been significantly stronger, it remains more likely that Algeria will be the first to receive the aircraft. North Korea’s lack of experience operating post-Cold War fighter planes, or with any large and long ranged fighters, is expected to make conversion of fighter units to the Su-57 a more lengthy process despite the country’s higher levels of technical education.