Expert Outlines India’s Three Paths Forward to Procure Su-57 Fighters: What Are the Advantages of Each?

Following the Russian Su-57 fifth generation fighter’s debut appearance in India at the Air India 2025 aerospace exhibition, representatives from Delhi and Moscow have reportedly been holding talks on the sale of the aircraft. The fighter is considered India’s only realistic near term option to acquire a fifth generation level capability, which is expected to be highly prized both as China rapidly expands and enhances its own fifth generation fleet, and as it is set to deliver its J-35 fighter to Pakistan before the end of the decade. As one of only two fifth generation fighters in production in the world today outside China, the only other option, the American F-35, considered unlikely to be selected due to the very limited autonomy which the United States will allow on how it can be utilised. Further factors include the limited levels of trust between Washington and Delhi, as the former has threatened the latter with economic sanctions in the past and often leveraged clients’ reliance on its aircraft to threaten embargoes and extract political concessions. Expert on fifth generation fighter programs and author of the book China’s Stealth Fighter: The J-20 ‘Mighty Dragon’ and the Growing Challenge to Western Air Dominance, Abraham Abrams, in a recent article elaborated on the three very different paths which the Indian Defence Ministry could take to procure the fighters.

Off the Shelf Procurements: The first path India could take to procure the Su-57 would be to purchase the fighters built in Russia ‘off the shelf’ in standard export configuration, much as the Algerian Air Force has recently done. This would allow the aircraft to be delivered much more quickly, “possibly on a competitive schedule with Pakistan’s receipt of the J-35,” as Abrams notes, while also being significantly cheaper than license producing the aircraft at a new facility in India itself. Such procurements could be made as a stopgap until India’s Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) fifth generation fighter is operational. However, as Abrams observes, “the indigenous fighter is only expected to reach a prototype stage in the mid-2030s. This and the fact that preceding Indian aviation programs have consistently set strong precedents for decades long delays makes it likely that the the Su-57 will need to be relied on as more than a limited stopgap aircraft.” With the AMCA expected to enter service only close to 2040, and with the Indian government focused on strengthening its domestic industries, procurement of the Su-57 exclusively ‘off the shelf’ appears less likely, with interest expected to be high in also producing the aircraft locally.

License Production: A second path India could could take to procure the Su-57 would be to procure a limited number of fighters ‘off the shelf’ as a stopgap, and work to set up license production of further Su-57s in India for larger scale procurements. As noted by Abrams: “This would mirror the procurement of 18 Su-30K and 50 Su-30MKI fighters from Russia preceding a license production deal. Producing the fighters in India would align with the government’s priorities to reduce arms imports and bolster domestic defence manufacturing, with such an agreement likely to be tied to requirements for significant transfers of technologies to local industry to bolster the AMCA program.” The expert notes that much like the Su-30, the fighter could be customised to meet indigenous requirements, with the addition of a second seat considered a particularly likely option and one that Russian officials have referred to in the past. He further observes the possibility that Su-57s could be leased from Russia, rather than purchased outright, until license production models begin to enter service. There are multiple precedents for India producing Russian fighters under license domestically, including the MiG-21 and MiG-27, with the country’s need for technology transfers to support the AMCA program and for experience in fifth generation level fighter manufacturing techniques making this particularly appealing.

A Joint Program: A third path India could could take to procure the Su-57 would be to “again launch a joint program to develop an enhanced and heavily customised variant of the Su-57, possibly under a different designation such as the ‘Su-60.’” Such an aircraft could make greater use of Indian technologies in particular in its avionics suite, and see a deal accompanied by larger transfers of technologies and a greater local share of production. The time this would take would also create an incentive for the purchase or leasing of Su-57s built in Russia in limited numbers to serve as a stopgap. “Such a program could be seen as the optimal means of strengthening the Indian fighter aviation sector to place it in the best position possible to develop the AMCA,” Abrams notes, adding that the second and third options could be combined. This would entail license production of a more standard lightly customised Su-57 variant in the interim, until production lines “covert to the jointly developed version once development and flight testing is complete, possibly in the 2030s.” While there remain significant uncertainties regarding India’s plans for the Su-57, the country’s security situation, its industrial priorities, and its preceding deals to procure Russian fighters provide multiple indicators of how it may proceed.