Three Years Into the Russian-Ukrainian War: These Third Parties Have Been the Big Winners

February 24, 2025 marks three years since the outbreak for full scale war between Russia and Ukraine, as a conflict within Ukraine that began with the overthrow of the Russian-friendly Ukrainian government in February 2014 escalated into a much broader scale of hostilities with widespread geopolitical implications. The involvement of countries across the Western world and among Western-aligned states in bolstering Kiev’s position, and the significant support which Russia has received militarily, economically and diplomatically from non-Western actors, has meant that the conflict has had a truly global impact. Some of the most consequential impacts of the conflict have included the draining of Western Bloc states’ arms stockpiles and intense concentration of their attentions on Eastern Europe, and the alienation of Russia from Europe after extensive post-Soviet efforts to integrate, which have provided new opportunities to a number of state actors. While European economies have been particularly hard hit by the war, with the results for the United States and Russia themselves being mixed, a summary of the third parties that have emerged as the primary beneficiaries of the conflict is provided below:

China

The widespread imposition of economic sanctions on Russia not only by Western Bloc states, but also by rival high tech manufacturers South Korea, Japan and Taiwan, resulted in an unprecedented degree of Russian dependance on China and a major expansion in the market share which Chinese firms have enjoyed in areas ranging from electric cars to semiconductors. The conflict’s absorption of Western attentions and military stockpiles has limited the Western Bloc’s ability to pursue military action in East Asia, while its devastating impact on European economies in particular has further strained the ability of many states on the continent to see through plans to expand their military presences in the region. The expansion of the Russian Armed Forces and strengthening of Russia’s ties with other Western adversaries, including North Korea and Iran, has further indirect benefits for Chinese security. Tensions caused between the Western Bloc and non-Western actors such as India and Indonesia over threats to impose secondary sanctions on Russia’s trading partners has further alienated the West from much of the international community. The expected eventual Western abandonment of Ukraine’s efforts to restore claimed territories in the Donbas and Crimea is set to also shake U.S. allies such as South Korea, Japan and Taiwan’s confidence in Western security guarantees, potentially paving the way to closer ties with Beijing.

North Korea

North Korea is estimated to have gained billions of dollars in revenue from arms sales to Russia, with the requirements of the Russian-Ukrainian War matching closely with the strengths of the country’s defence sector. Following initial reports that Russian Wagner Group contractors were relying on North Korean equipment in 2022, Russia by mid-2024 was reported to have received over 6 million artillery rounds from its neighbour, and a number of sophisticated assets including Bulsae-4 anti tank missile systems and KN-23B ballistic missile systems. Russia’s heavy reliance on North Korean support is also speculated to allow Pyongyang to request transfers of advanced space and submarine technologies, as well as fighter aircraft, which it was previously unable to obtain due to Moscow’s unwillingness to jeopardise ties with South Korea or the Western Bloc states. North Korea has also reportedly benefitted from deliveries of fossil fuels and other resources on more favourable terms, while Russia has lowered barriers to allowing North Korean workers to seek employment in the country which is expected to yield significant economic benefits for both countries. North Korea’s commitment of personnel to the defence of Russia’s Kursk region, and its security of a mutual defence treaty, is expected to secure reciprocal Russian support for its security for the foreseeable future.

India

India emerged as a key beneficiary of the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, with the country’s economic competitiveness bolstered considerably by its ability to procure Russian oil at below market prices. Russia by mid-2023 provided 46 percent of total Indian oil imports compared to under two percent before the war began, with much of the Russian oil procured being sold on to Europe at significantly higher prices after various levels of processing in India. The conflict also allowed the Indian government to accelerate efforts to reduce its dependance on the U.S. dollar for trade, with proportions of trade settled in rupees, roubles and yuan surging from 2022.

Arab Gulf States

Alongside India, oil rich Arab states in the gulf region were key beneficiaries of the outbreak of war in Ukraine, with the surge in oil prices significantly increasing their state revenues. Saudi Arabia and Russian in particular would cooperate “to maintain the needed balance and stability on the global energy market” in 2022, with Riyadh playing a key role through OPEC+ in thwarting Western efforts to engineer a lowering of oil prices to increase economic pressure on Russia. Close coordination on lowering oil output allowed for a sustainment of high prices in the aftermath of the war’s outbreak, which had the secondary effect of increasing the war’s fallout for European economies. Loss of access to Russian oil left European states more reliant on Arab oil supplies, with Saudi Arabia moving as far as to increase its own imports of discounted Russian oil to facilitate larger oil exports to the West without increasing its output – thus profiting from the significant price difference. Beyond oil markets, Dubai in particular would strengthen its position as a hub for the offshoring of Russian assets and for the transfer of sanctioned products to Russia, which significantly bolstered the emirate’s economy.

Iran

Although Russia repeatedly demonstrated a reluctance to significantly strengthen ties with Iran after the disintegration of the Soviet Union, conflict in Ukraine allowed Tehran to benefit from Moscow’s dependance on its significant exports of drones and other military equipment. Iranian Shahed 136 drones in particular would play a central role in the Russian war effort from September 2022. The importance of Iranian drone deliveries that year was such that senior aide to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, Mikhail Podolyak, called for an attack on the country in November. Iran has been able to secure not only significant revenues for its defence sector, but also access on favourable terms to advanced Russian armaments including Su-35 fighters planes, which are scheduled for delivery in 2025. The significant rise in oil prices that resulted from the outbreak of the war also provided a significant boost to Iranian government revenues.

Turkey

Turkey emerged as a leading beneficiary of the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine, with elites from both states offshoring significant funds to the country from 2022 fuelling, among other things, a surge in prices of luxury housing. Turkey’s defence sector also gained significant profits as a supplier to Ukraine. The focusing of Russian military attentions on the Ukrainian theatre was a leading factor allowing Turkey to engineer the overthrow of the Syrian government, which had been a major adversary since the 1950s. Prior attempts to achieve this both in the 1950s and in the 2010s had been thwarted by military interventions by Moscow. Islamist paramilitaries benefitting from considerable Turkish support, including Turkish special forces embedded within their ranks, were able to take over the capital Damascus on December 8, 2024, while the Turkish flag was hosted over Aleppo where Turkish regular forces were reported to have been deployed. This was closely coordinated with Israel, which deployed forces to occupy large parts of southern Syria while Turkish forces and affiliated paramilitaries took control of the north.