Russia Derails Ukraine’s Sapsan Long Range Missile Program with Major Attack on Key Production Facilities

The Russian Armed Forces have successfully targeted four Ukrainian defence industrial facilities contributing to producing long-range missile systems, marking a major setback to the Ukrainian Sapsan ballistic missile program. Sites targeted included chemical and mechanical plants in Pavlograd, as well as the Zvezda plant and State Scientific Research Institute of Chemical Products in Shostka. The agency claimed that the damage to Ukraine’s military industrial complex was “colossal,” adding that Ukraine had planned to use Sapsan long-range missiles for strikes deep into Russian territory. “Thanks to the joint efforts of the FSB and Russian Armed Forces, Ukraine’s missile program plans have been thwarted,” it concluded. Highlighting the extent of the threat, the agency published a map outlining the Sapsan’s range, which showed it covering a large part of Western Russia including the capital Moscow. The missile program was thought to have been largely funded by Germany, with Chancellor Friedrich Merz having announced in May that Berlin would finance Ukrainian production of long range missiles.

The Sapsan began development in the mid-2000s as a replacement for the Soviet OTR-21 Tochka, a short ranged ballistic missile class that had been widely fielded by the Soviet Army. Major delays to the program, however, left the Ukrainian Army heavily reliant on the OTR-21 when full scale hostilities with Russian broke out with Russia in 2022. The depletion of the arsenal led the United States to re-equip the Ukrainain Army with the ATACMS, a significantly more advanced ballistic missile system. ATACMS supplies have diminished significantly, however, while their effectiveness against Russian positions has varied widely due to the effective use of electronic warfare to disrupt their guidance systems.

The Sapsan program had the potential to significantly reduce reliance on the ATACMS while providing a major increase in range over the OTR-21. The missile class is reportedly able to reach targets up to 500 kilometres away, matching the range of the Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile system. The significant superiority of the Russian ballistic missile arsenal has been a primary factor in its favour throughout the war, and has grown both as production of the Iskander-M system has expanded tremendously, and as the country has procured KN-23B and other missile classes from North Korea, which have much longer ranges and higher payloads than their Russian counterparts. Setbacks to the Sapsan program will ensure that the gap in strike capabilities is not made narrower.