India Cancels Planned Purchase of P-8I Anti-Submarine Warfare Jets Amid Rising Tensions with U.S.

The Indian Defence Ministry has suspended negotiations for the procurement of six Boeing P-8I Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, in response to escalating tensions with the United States. Relations between the two countries have worsened significantly over the past six months, as Washington has increased pressure on Delhi both to significantly reduce its defence procurements from Russia, and more broadly to cut economic ties in particular relating to purchases of Russian oil. The imposition of a 25 percent tariff on Indian imports on August 6 specifically as a means of pressuring India to end purchases of Russian oil prompted the Indian government to retaliate. A contract for the sale of six P-8 aircraft was approved by the U..S Defense Security Cooperation Agency in 2021 for $2.42 billion, although sharp inflation in the United States has been among the factors stimulating a 50 percent price rise to around $3.6 billion.

The Indian Navy currently operates 12 P-8 aircraft, which are by far the most high value military assets the country has procured from the United States. Defence procurements have remained limited, largely due to Washington’s perceived lack of reliability as a supplier and its imposition of extensive controls over how its military equipment is used. This was considered a primary factor preventing the F-35 from being seriously considered to provide India with a fifth generation fighter capability, which is considered to have effectively guaranteed that the Indian Air Force will procure the rival Russian Su-57, for which the Russian Defence Ministry has offered full access to it sensitive source codes. The degree of autonomy offered by the two countries has contrasted particularly sharply.

Although the Soviet Union previously sold advanced long range anti-submarine warfare aircraft to India, Russia lacks a direct counterpart to the P-8, raising the possibility that the Indian Navy will be forced to increase availability rates and intensify operations of its twelve existing aircraft to compensate for the shortfall in numbers. The possibility of joint development of an alternative to the P-8 also remains. The lack of a contract could represent a significant setback for the American aviation sector, while an undermining of relations with India may backfire into a very serous setback for the American Indo-Pacific strategy. In response to Washington’s escalation of pressure on Delhi, the office of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that he would be making his first visit to China in seven years, with a strengthening of ties between two neighbours potentially being highly detrimental to U.S. and broader Western interests.