Ukraine’s Attack on Russian Airfields Could Accelerate the PAK DA Stealth Bomber Program

The Ukrainian Armed Forces’ successful attacks on major strategic bomber facilities across Russia on June 1 under Operation Spider’s Web has drawn renewed attention to the future of the Russian strategic aviation fleet, which currently remains highly uncertain. The losses of Tu-95MS intercontinental range bombers, and possibly a number of lighter Tu-22M3 bombers, neither of which have been produced since the 1990s, is expected to increase the Russian Aerospace Forces’ reliance on the Tu-160M program, which was initiated in 2015 to bring the Soviet supersonic intercontinental range bomber back into production. While Tu-160s are currently being built at the Kazan Aircraft Plant, however, the relatively slow rate of production, and the need to replenish potentially major losses within the Tu-95MS fleet, may stimulate the Russian Defence Ministry to seek to accelerate work on the PAK DA next generation bomber program.Considerable delays to the PAK DA program were a primary cause for the Defence Ministry to decide to resume production of the Tu-160 as a stopgap measure, with the new bomber now expected to enter service near the end of the 2030s. Prioritisation of the program, however, could potentially bring this date forward to the mid-2030s.

Tu-95MS losses may be a more minor contributing factor among several which lead the Defence Ministry to allocate greater attention to the PAK DA program. The rise in geopolitical tensions with NATO members, and the growing investments being made by the United States in securing its territory against missile attacks under the Golden Dome program, could make intercontinental range strategic bombers with next generation stealth capabilities and armaments particularly in valuable assets. Moves by China and the United States to introduce the respective H-20 and B-21 next generation stealth bombers into service increasingly threatens to leave the Russian fleet qualitatively behind if continuing to rely on the Tu-160M. Although The Tu-160M is considered one of the most capable classes of strategic bomber fielded anywhere in the world today, the development of new classes of very long range anti-aircraft missiles well optimised to engaging such aircraft has the potential to leave them increasingly vulnerable due to their lack of stealth capabilities. The PAK DA’s operational costs are also expected to be considerably lower, which would likely make it a more cost effective asset.

The design of the PAK DA bomber was reportedly finalised in 2019, after which a next generation engine developed under the Izdeliye RF program was reported to have begun bench tests in 2022. In June 2021 sources in Russia’s military-industrial complex reported that “a completely new airborne defence system is being developed for PAK DA, which will protect it from all types of weapons – radar and optical,” and that the aircraft would place a strong emphasis on electronic warfare for defence against enemy surface-to-air and air-to-air missile attacks. The Russian Defence Ministry in December 2023 commissioned work towards the creation of a new facility dedicated to the development and testing of the new bomber. Although Russian sources initially projected that the PAK DA program would allow a new bomber to enter service by 2027, however, this appears highly unlikely to materialise. A significant possibility remains, however, that many of the new technologies developed for the program could be integrated onto future enhanced variants of the Tu-160M, potentially before the new stealth bomber is itself ready for service.

The serious delays the PAK DA program has suffered are in line with broader trends in the Russian combat aviation sector since the end of the Cold War. The Su-57 fifth generation fighter developed under the PAK FA program, for example, was intended to enter service in 2010, with subsequent delays pushing this back to 2015 with the goal of having 200 fighters in service by the end of 2025. The fleet is currently estimated to stand at around 40 aircraft, with the first fighter having entered service only in 2020. The PAK DP next generation interceptor program also remains far behind schedule, raising questions regarding whether it will be seen through to a flight prototype stage, or whether to reduce costs an interceptor variant of the Su-57 will instead be developed to guard Russia’s remote Arctic and Far Eastern regions. Although the possibility remains that Russia’s next generation bomber developed under the PAK DA program will see its service entry further delayed into the 2040s, Russia’s security situation raises a significant possibility that work on the program will be expedited.