Responding to Ukrainain Drone Strikes: Russia Builds Hardened Aircraft Shelters to Avoid Future Losses

Footage released by the British Ministry of Defence has shown that the Russian Aerospace Forces are constructing hardened aircraft shelters at multiple airbases in the country’s western regions, which has been widely interpreted as a response to Ukraine’s multiple attacks on such facilities using various drone classes. Shelters at bases in Millerovo, Kursk Vostochny, and Hvardiiske have dome shaped roofs and thick blast doors and are reinforced with earthen coverings. They appear to have been built to accommodate the large dimensions of Russian tactical combat jets such as the Su-34 strike fighter and MiG-31BM interceptor, although it remains uncertain whether other shelters will be built to host larger support and strategic aircraft such as A-50 AEW&Cs and Tu-95MS bombers. Both tactical and strategic aircraft have been targeted in Ukrainain drone attacks in the past.

The revelation of the construction of new aircraft shelters closely coincides with German Army Major General Christian Freuding’s call for further Ukrainian attacks targeting Russian airfields. “You can also indirectly affect the offensive potential of Russian strike forces before they are deployed,” the general stated at the time, adding: “Use long-range air warfare assets to strike aircraft and airfields before they are used. Also, target weapons production facilities.” Such attacks launched from Ukraine have been very heavily facilitated by Western support, including from Western personnel on the ground and access to satellite intelligence. The extent of Ukraine’s successes in launching such attacks has reverberated across major air forces worldwide, and in the U.S. Air Force has been cited repeatedly to make the case for urgent investments in the hardening of airbases in the Pacific theatre in particular.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces achieved their most significant success in targeting Russian airfields on June 1, when a large scale drone attack on multiple airbases across the country’s northern and western regions was launched under Operation Spider’s Web. Satellite footage confirmed the destruction of multiple Tu-95MS and Tu-22M3 strategic bombers, causing losses from which the Russian strategic aviation fleet is expected to take years to recover. Attacks on Engels Airbase, which hosts Russia’s most valuable class of combat jet the Tu-160 strategic bomber, have been attempted multiple times, often destroying fuel or infrastructure. These attacks have been cited as a factor that may have influenced the Russian Aerospace Forces’ decision to redeploy Tu-160s further east in early June. More frequently Ukrainian strikes have targeted airbases hosting tactical combat jets such as Su-34 strike fighters and MiG-31 interceptors, with an attack in the first hours of full scale hostilities in late February using a Soviet OTR-21 ballistic missile system having destroyed a Su-30SM fighter on the ground.

Russia’s hardening of its major airbases has significant implications not only for the security of its combat aviation fleet against Ukrainain attacks, but also for its military standing against NATO. With the United States having re-introduced ground-based launchers for long ranged cruise missiles, while Germany is seeking to procure such systems for its own forces, NATO members have more broadly invested increasingly heavily in procuring fleets of long range attack drones. Russian military aircraft on the ground are expected to be high priority targets for attacks by these assets in the event of a major war, with strategic bombers expected to be particularly singled out. Russia has itself significantly increased its capability to strike NATO members’ airbases across Europe and the Pacific, including by increasing production of Geran-2 single use attack drones more than tenfold, with further expansion of production facilitiesongoing, and bybringingthe Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missiles ballistic missilesrapidly into service. The possibility of a similar widespread hardening of NATO airbases thus remains significant.