Germany a Threshold Nuclear Weapons State, Could Develop Bomb in ‘Matter of Months’ – IAEA

International Atomic Energy Agency Director General Rafael Grossi has highlighted Germany’s position as a threshold nuclear weapons state, warning that it retains access to the technologies, nuclear material, and knowhow, to develop a nuclear weapon within “a matter of months.” He nevertheless noted that “these are purely hypothetical assumptions,” as Berlin continued to affirm its commitment to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons. Despite not producing its own nuclear weapons, Germany has committed to an investment estimated at $10.9 billion to modernise its nuclear delivery capabilities with the procurement of 35 F-35A stealth fighters from the United States. These will train to employ nuclear weapons under a nuclear sharing agreement with the United States, under which American B61 nuclear bombs stored in Germany will be transferred to the Germany Air Force in the case of a major war. Nuclear sharing has raised significant controversy for providing countries with wartime access to nuclear weapons.

Senior German officials have increasingly argued that nuclear sharing with the United States is insufficient for the country’s security interests, calling for Germany to enter into a nuclear sharing agreement with the United Kingdom or France, or for the development of an independent European nuclear umbrella. German representative and vice-president at the European parliament Katarina Barley, for one, previously argued that the European Union should have its own nuclear weapons capability. “In view of Donald Trump’s recent statements, we can no longer rely on” America’s nuclear umbrella, she stressed, adding that a “European bomb” could be an important step towards developing a joint EU Armed Forces. It has been speculated that Germany’s influence within the EU would provide it with an effective ability to initiate nuclear strikes should such a capability materialise independently of the United States.

In February 2025 the French government was reported to be considering deploying nuclear armed Rafale fighters to Germany at a time when America’s commitment to supporting European security interests was in question, leading to the possibility being raised of an independent nuclear deterrent involving German being developed. The availability of B61 warheads for nuclear sharing, however, is also expected to increase, with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg having stated in June the previous yearthat the alliance was holding talks on the deployment of more nuclear weapons. ”The U.S. is modernising their gravity bombs for the nuclear warheads they have in Europe and European allies are modernising the planes which are going to be dedicated to NATO nuclear mission,” he elaborated at the time. The importance of nuclear weapons has been attributed growing importance in Europe since the outbreak of full scale hostilities in Ukraine in February 2022, with chair of the NATO Military Committee Admiral Rob Bauer having stated in November 2024 that if Russia did not have a nuclear deterrent, NATO would have attacked the country. “I am absolutely sure if the Russians did not have nuclear weapons, we would have been in Ukraine, kicking them out,” he said at the time.