China Completes its Full Nuclear Triad with New JL-1 Ballistic Missile

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force on September 3 for the first time unveiled the new JL-1 air-launched nuclear-armed ballistic missile, as part of the first ever display of the country’s full nuclear triad alongside the new JL-3 submarine-launched ballistic missile, and three classes of ground launched intercontinental range ballistic missiles. The JL-1 was unveiled during a parade marking the 80th anniversary of the Chinese and Allied victory over Imperial Japan in the Second World War, and is expected to equip Chinese H-6 strategic bombers. Although the H-6 fleet is significantly newer than the rival bomber fleets of Russia and the United States, the aircraft is considerably smaller and lacks an intercontinental range comparable to American and Russian bombers such as the B-2 and Tu-160. This makes deployment of long ranged air-launched missiles particularly vital. Advances in air defence capabilities mean that all bomber classes in the world today function primarily as missile carriers, with the JL-1 expected to allow H-6 bombers to strike their targets from safe distances.

The H-6 is fielded in greater numbers than any other bomber in the world, with over 270 in service while no other bomber class has even 100 operational. The aircraft is prized for its much lower operational costs and maintenance needs than Russian and American designs, and is well suited for launching strike operations across East Asia. The aircraft are capable of striking targets on the United States mainland either by relying on aerial refuelling from the Air Force’s fast expanding fleet of YY-20 tankers, or by refuelling at airbases on Russian territory as they have in the past. The JL-1 itself is thought to be party derived from the DF-21 medium range ballistic missile, although little is known regarding its capabilities including its range and the tonnage of its warhead. Although state media outlets claimed the missile had JL-1 an 8,000 kilometre range, it remains uncertain whether this range includes the combat radius of an unrefuelled H-6, which appears more likely considering the relatively small size of the missile.

H-6 bombers have been equipped other ballistic missile classes in the past, with one of the aircraft seen carrying tactical ballistic missiles at the 2022 Zhuhai Airshow. Although China’s ground based strategic missile arsenal is considered second only to that of Russia in its potency, the country’s submarine and air launched nuclear deterrents remain far more constrained than those of Russia and the United States. The JL-1 is expected to leverage China’s emerging leadership in missile technologies to narrow the gap in capabilities, which is particularly critical until the country’s much larger H-20 intercontinental range stealth bomber begins to enter service some time in the 2030s. This mirrors the approach taken to strengthen the country’s maritime nuclear deterrent, with Chinese Type 094 Class ballistic missile submarines being under half the size of their most capable Russian counterparts and carrying significantly smaller arsenals. The commissioning of the JL-3 submarine-launched missile appears intended to narrow the gap in capabilities until the newer Type 096 Class submarines can be brought into service with fully peer level capabilities to their to American and Russian counterparts.