China Unveils New Generation of Intercontinental Range Missiles: Can They Revolutionise Deterrence?

At a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the defeat of the Japanese Empire, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has unveiled three new classes of intercontinental range ballistic missiles, which appear set to significantly strengthen its nuclear deterrence capabilities against adversaries in the Western world. China’s lack of a global network of military bases to project power against its adversaries has made the deployment of longer range assets, including intercontinental range missiles, particularly vital to its ability to deter attacks, and if necessary retaliate to attacks launched by states vast distances away. Two of the three new missiles seen are new variants of pre-existing missile classes, namely the DF-5C and the DF-31BJ. The DF-5 is the country’s sole silo-based missile class and by far the heaviest in its arsenal, and can carry a higher payload including more reentry vehicles. The DF-31 is a road mobile missile which first entered service in the mid-2000s, and currently serves as the backbone of the country’s road mobile arsenal.

At the People’s Liberation Army’s previous parade in October 2019, the first successor to the DF-31, the DF-41, was unveiled. The latest parade saw another new class of road mobile intercontinental range ballistic missile unveiled for the first time, the DF-61, raising the possibility that it may have replaced the DF-41 in production. Little is known regarding the capabilities of the three new missiles, although it is highly possible that the DF-31BJ and DF-61 benefit from faster setup and launch times than their predecessors. It is also likely that the three missile classes may benefit from the significant efforts that have been made to develop new generations of hypersonic glide vehicle technologies. Russia was previously the only country confirmed to have integrated hypersonic glide vehicles onto its intercontinental range ballistic missiles, albeit so far only in limited numbers. Such vehicles allow strikes to be launched at speeds of over Mach 27, from unexpected directions, and over much longer ranges, which poses very significant challenges to hostile air defences.

Providing insight into China’s intercontinental range missile programs, a landmark test in mid-2021 saw the People’s Liberation Army launch an intercontinental range hypersonic glide vehicle which flew around the world, which was a wholly unprecedented development. Vice Chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff General John Hyten warned in November that year regarding the test: “They launched a long-range missile. It went around the world, dropped off a hypersonic glide vehicle that glided all the way back to China, that impacted a target in China.” He stressed that the vehicle had shown it could strike targets accurately anywhere in the world, and that this was highly concerning for American interests. It is likely that at least some of the new intercontinental range ballistic missile classes integrate such glide vehicles. As China rapidly expands its nuclear arsenal, it is expected that the country’s production of intercontinental range ballistic missiles will continue to surpass the combined production of all other countries in the world, allowing the country to narrow the gap between the size of its arsenal and those of the United States and Russia. The development of new missiles allows the People’s Liberation Army to compensate for the smaller size of its ICBM arsenal with a growing advantage in its sophistication.