Belarus Planning to Introduce Nuclear-Tipped Rocket Artillery on NATO’s Eastern Flank

The Belarusian government is considering options to integrate nuclear warheads onto its army’s Polonez long range rocket artillery systems, according to one of the country’s most senior security officials State Secretary of the Belarusian Security Council Alexander Volfovich. “Today this is a modern complex. The range of the missiles was 200 kilometres, today these are missiles (with a range) of 300 kilometres. This is high-precision weaponry. Of course, any weapon requires adjustments and changes. Questions are already being raised about equipping these missiles with nuclear warheads,” he stated. Nuclear-tipped artillery systems were widely deployed during the early years of the Cold War, most notably across Central Europe and by the U.S. Army in South Korea, although they are relatively scarce today other than the Pakistan Army’s Nasr system. The introduction of low level tactical nuclear weapons could help to compensate for Belarus’ conventional disadvantages against the vast and fast growing NATO forces deployed across its borders.

Belarus entered into a nuclear weapons sharing agreement with Russia in 2023, with the Iskander-M ballistic missile serving as a primary delivery vehicle for potential nuclear strikes by Belarusian forces. Russian nuclear warheads stored on Belarusian territory will be made available to the Belarusian Army to equip these missiles in the event of a major war with NATO, mirroring the nuclear sharing agreements the United States maintains with Germany, Italy, Belgium, the Netherlands, Turkey and the United Kingdom.

It has been reported that Belarus is developing its own ballistic missile systems jointly with Russia which will be based on the Iskander. By the end of 2025, the Belarusian Army will have also begun to deploy Oreshnik intermediate range ballistic missiles, with the launch vehicles for the missiles confirmed in March to be being built in Belarus. Equipping Polonez rocket artillery systems with nuclear warheads will provide a third tier to Belarus’ nuclear arsenal, complementing the strategic long range capability of the Oreshnik, and the Iskander-M which can serve as both a lower end strategic or higher end tactical system.

The Polonez was developed jointly with China, capitalising on the industrial strengths of both countries, with Belarusian industry has been responsible for producing vehicles and launchers for the missiles, while Chinese industry produced the ordinance. This has raised the possibility that the Chinese government may not asset to the systems being used for nuclear roles. The Polonez-M is widely considered the most capable rocket artillery system in Europe, with its most notable feature being its 300km engagement range, giving it a similar reach to the Scud-B ballistic missile and two to three times that of most other modern rocket artillery systems.

Belarus has perceived a growing threat from NATO member states, with Germany on May 22 having inaugurated the new 45th Armoured Brigade stationed in Vilnius, Lithuania, located just 150 kilometres from the Belarusian capital Minsk. Neighbouring Poland has meanwhile invested very significantly in expanding its forces, primarily through the procurement of ground forces equipment from South Korea and F-35 and F-16V fighters from the United States, at a time when tensions on the border between the country and Belarus have continued to rise.