Ukraine Has Exhausted Soviet Arsenals: Dependance on Western Supplies Increasingly Extreme

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have reached a critical turning point in the depletion of their equipment, as supplies inherited from the Soviet Union have been almost entirely exhausted. Ukraine was previously by far the most heavily armed country in Europe, inheriting thousands of main battle tanks, many of them cutting edge T-80s, as well as strategic bombers and vast arsenals of air defence systems, combat jets, and artillery among other assets. These arsenals were gradually depleted over the following three decades, with the large majority of tanks and aircraft scrapped, while many more were exported, whether Su-27 fighters sold to the United States, T-64 tanks sold to Congo, T-72 tanks sold to South Sudan, or the country’s most capable tank class the T-80UD which saw almost all units sold to Pakistan. Despite the divestment of these assets, by the time of the outbreak of full scale hostilities with Russia in February 2022 Ukraine’s ground forces were still the most heavily armed on the continent, with Soviet-built equipment making up the vast majority of their stockpiles.

Commenting on the extent of the depletion of Ukraine’s arsenals, a recent report of the U.S. Department of Defence’s ongoing mission to bolster the security of NATO allies and provide support to Ukraine observed: “As of this quarter, Ukraine had nearly exhausted its supplies of Soviet and Russian artillery and rocket ammunition, making the UAF [Ukrainian armed forces] almost entirely reliant on Western assistance.” The reportdetailed persistent challenges in other critical areas facing the Ukrainian armed forces, as they have suffered increasinglyunsustainable personnel and equipment losses, while Russian forces have made steady advances for several months.

The depletion of Ukraine’s arsenals of air defence systems in particular has been highlighted in both Western and Ukrainain reports in the past, and as early as November 2022 the Ukrainian Air Force warnedthat its ability continue to operate them effectively was under serious threat as Soviet era S-300 and BuK systems could not be replenished. Leaks of secret documents from the U.S. Department of Defence in April 2023 showed that there were rising concerns within the Pentagon regarding the state of the Ukrainian Air Force’s surface-to-air missile network due to increasingly severe shortages.

Ukraine has benefited from tremendous supplies of Western Bloc armaments, including both Soviet equipment previously operated by Eastern European Warsaw Pact states, as well as Western-built equipment. Supplies of Soviet equipment from Warsaw Pact states have increasingly been depleted, however, meaning Western designed equipment will form a growing portion of Ukraine’s arsenal should hostilities continue. This is expected to result in a severe contraction in the quantities of equipment available, as Western equipment is not only available on a limited scale, but is also wholly unaffordable to replenish Ukraine’s losses of Soviet equipment one-for-one. MIM-104 Patriot long range air defence systems, for example, which have been relied on to replace lost S-300 systems, cost around $2.5 billion each, while the Western world has been unable to replenish the severe losses of both systems that Ukraine has suffered. Replacing the Ukrainian Army’s lost Soviet tanks, 87 percent of M1A1 Abrams tanks supplied by the United States were lost within 16 months of their participation in hostilities, with further supplies from the United States not expected to be forthcoming. These examples highlight the broader issues that Ukraine will face sustaining its forces once the Soviet arsenals it an its Warsaw Pact neighbours inherited are depleted.