Can Poland’s New F-16V Upgrade Program Threaten Russia’s Aerial Dominance?

The Polish Ministry of Defence’s signing of a $3.8 billion contract to modernise 48 F-16C/D Block 52+ fighters to the F-16V standard is expected to revolutionise the combat capabilities of the Polish Air Force, and has significant geopolitical implications at a time of high tensions with neighbouring Russia. The procurement will bring the fighters’ avionics up to a similar standard to the F-35A and South Korean FA-50 fighter aircraft that are currently on order. The F-16C/D is considered effectively obsolete for high intensity combat missions today, primarily due to the obsolescence of its avionics including its reliance on a mechanically scanned array radar which is relatively straightforward to jam and provides only very limited situational awareness. The F-16V’s avionics closely based on those from the latest F-16 Block 70/72 fighters, including the same AN/APG-83 active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar.

Alongside the U.S. Air Force, the Republic of China Air Force and Republic of Korea Air Force have have been leading clients for the F-16V upgrade package, while the Turkish Defence Ministry has sought to be granted permission to procure the same package for its own F-16s. F-16s enhanced to such a standard are considered ‘4+ generation’ fighters, and have capabilities to far more effectively complement the new F-35. Commenting on the decision to modernise the F-16s, Polish Defence Minster Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz observed: “Over 20 years ago, our predecessors made the choice of aircraft to replace the post-Soviet equipment in the Polish Air Force. We chose the F-16, and it was a very good decision – a proven aircraft, a platform capable of extraordinary combat operations… The current capabilities of the F-16 C/D version are good, but after 20 years, they are insufficient to address the threats. We need to improve reconnaissance capabilities, communications, integration with the F-35 … as well as the ability to operate in any domain.”

The modernisation of Poland’s F-16 fleet is a significant development for neighbouring Russia and Belarus, as the Polish Air Force had previously only ordered a small fleet of 32 F-35A fighters, ensuring it only had a limited number of aircraft capable of posing a serious threat either to their air defence networks or in air-to-air engagements. The F-16C/D Block 52 was considered far from capable of going head to head with fighters such as the Su-30SM or of seriously threatening networks of ground-based air defence systems such as the S-400. The F-16V, however, can potentially pose a significantly greater challenge particularly when operating alongside the F-35A. This procurement will complement the very large scale investments being made to modernise Poland’s ground forces into among the most capable in Europe, primarily through mass procurements of armour and artillery systems from South Korea, and to a lesser extent from the United States.

The F-16V suffers from a number of significant drawbacks compared to other classes fielded by both NATO and Russia. While lacking the stealth or advanced electronic intelligence or sensor capabilities of the F-35A, it is also highly constrained compared to fighters such as the F-18E/F, F-15EX and Russian Su-30SM and Su-35, largely due to its very small size which limits it to carrying a relatively weak radar and small payloads of missiles and pods. The AN/APG-83 radar is under a quarter the size of those carried by the Su-30SM and Su-35 that form the backbone of the Russian fleet. The F-16V can nevertheless partly compensate for this by receiving data picked up by the F-35’s more powerful sensor suite using its Link 16 system, with the F-35’s importance as a force multiplier being particularly significant. The fighter also has the potential to integrate much more sophisticated air-to-air missile classes such as the AIM-120D3 and AIM-260. Although the F-16V is significantly less capable than top performing Russian fighters such as the Su-35, MiG-31BM and Su-57, the upgrade program nevertheless considerably increases pressure on Russia’s Western borders from collective NATO air power at a time when countries across the continent are rapidly adopting the F-35 to enhance their capabilities.