Export of Russia’s Heaviest Fighter Confirmed: Are Su-34Ms Going to Algeria or North Korea

New footage has confirmed that at least a small number of Su-34M strike fighters have been produced in export configuration, which has lend weight to prior unconfirmed reports that a contract for the sale of the aircraft to a foreign client has been signed. Although multiple clients have been speculated to potentially have an interest in the aircraft, Algeria and North Korea have been considered its two most likely potential clients. The Su-34’s appeal to foreign clients has grown in recent years, as not only has production transitioned to the new Su-34M variant that reportedly has close to double the combat potential of the original, but also as new armaments such as the Kh-59MK2 cruise missile have increased its flexibility. New tactical reconnaissance pods have also allowed the aircraft to operate in a much wider range of roles. With production at the Novosibirsk Aircraft Plant having more than doubled since 2022, it is expected that rapid exports will be facilitated despite urgent demand for more of the aircraft from the Russian Aerospace Forces.

The Su-34M in Algerian service is expected to replace its Su-24M strike fighters, while in North Korean service it would replace the country’s older fleet of Il-28 bombers. Algeria has alongside India been one of the two leading clients for Russian fighter aircraft for over a decade, while North Korea’s strengthening of defence ties with Moscow including massive arms exports and major personnel contributions to support its ongoing war effort are expected to lead Moscow to relax its arms embargo on the country. A significant indictor that the fighters are indented for Algeria is their desert brown and yellow colour scheme, which differs starkly from those used in the Korean People’s Army Air Force and most other services. The fighters were first seen in such colours in mid-May, which fuelled speculation that they may have begun to be produced for export. At times of low rouble exchange rates, Su-34s have been produced for under $10 million, which makes procurements highly affordable particularly to replace older fighters with similar operational costs like the Su-24M.

The Su-34 is by far the largest fighter class in production worldwide today, and is approximately 50 percent heavier than the Su-27 Flanker air superiority fighter on which its design was based. Its range remains unrivalled, while its particularly high weapons carrying capacity has led it to be favoured for the provision of close air support in the Ukrainian theatre, with the use of precision guided glide bombs having become particularly common from early 2023. Reports from Ukrainian personnel on the frontlines have consistently indicated that attacks using these kinds of ordinance have been devastating. The fighter class’ electronic warfare capabilities and reduced frontal radar cross section provide a degree of improved survivability, while its particularly high endurance range and the long ranges of its missiles allow it to strike targets as far away as Africa, the Persian Gulf, and the mid-Pacific with large quantities of ordinance. In Algerian service the fighter would allow for significant retaliatory strikes against NATO targets across Europe should the alliance launch a similar attack to that carried out against Libya in 2011.

Alongside Algeria, there remains a slim possibility that the fighters are intended for another client with a similar climate, with Sudan and Iran both operating Su-24M fighters in desert colours which they may be intending to replace. Egypt has shown interest in procuring new classes of Russian fighters in the past, although after procuring MiG-29M fighters it was deterred from further procurements by threats of Western sanctions. With Algeria operating a fleet of close to 40 Su-24M fighters, it could procure a similar number of Su-34M fighters over the following years, which would revolutionise its fleet’s strike capabilities and increase commonality with the Su-30MKA and Su-35S fighters that form the backbone of its fleet.