Why Lockheed Martin is Betting Heavily on Delays to the F-47 and F/A-XX Sixth Generation Fighter Programs

Lockheed Martin Chief Executive Officer Jim Taiclet has renewed calls for a major increase in investment in the F-35 fifth generation fighter program to integrate technologies that can bridge the gap between the fighter’s capabilities and those of the sixth generation F-47 currently under development. The F-35 is “here to stay, in a big way, for a long time,” Taiclet stated, adding that it was “the only fifth-generation fighter aircraft in production right now [in the U.S.] and it’s proved itself in combat. So we will continue with our allies and with our U.S. customer to be delivering these aircraft.” He alluded to the F-35’s recent role in high intensity Israeli and U.S. operations against Iran, which represented a significantly more strenuous combat test for the fighter than anything that had come before. As by far the largest client for the F-35, the U.S. Air Force is currently receiving the aircraft at just a fraction of previously anticipated rates, with procurement rates having remained at around 48 per year, and set to fall to just 24 fighters in Fiscal year 2026.

Questions have been raised regarding the F-35 program’s future as both China and the United States appear poised to move their fighter fleets into the sixth generation era. China became the first country in the world to unveil a sixth generation fighter, with footage released on December 26 having shown aircraft from two such programs at advanced prototype stages. It has since test flown both intensively, and is expected to bring the first aircraft of the new generation into service in the early 2030s. Lockheed Martin’s stock suffered in the aftermath of the aircraft’s unveiling, specifically due to concerns that this raised regarding future Pentagon demand for the aircraft, which appear set to be left a generation behind by the early 2030s. Lockheed Martin has over the last quarter suffered $1.6 billion in losses, setting a concerning precedent should demand for the F-35 further diminish.

Responding to concerns, Taiclet observed regarding the F-35’s future: “the pivot that we made is one that we’re taking incredibly seriously, which is, how do we create a best-value bridge from today’s fifth generation to sixth generation?” Recalling that Lockheed Martin made a failed bid for the primary contract to develop the Next Generation Air Dominance [NGAD] sixth generation program that produced the F-47, he noted: “Lockheed can apply the technologies it developed for NGAD to the F-35,” which could be the “best value option” for the U.S. government. The F-47 “may not be fielded for quite a few years,” he noted, adding it could be “five-plus, maybe 10 years.” In the interim, the F-35 is “the only fighter I’m aware of that can actually make that bridge” to a new air dominance structure for the U.S. Armed Forces.

Although the F-47 program is expected to significantly reduce the U.S. Air Force’s interest in F-35A procurements, the precedents set by America’s only two clean sheet post-Cold War fighter programs, the F-22 and F-35, indicates that very significant delays are highly possible if not probable. Both fighters entered service over 15 years after their first demonstrator flights, which would put the F-47 on track to enter service closer to 2040. This could lead the Air Force to increase in investment in fielding heavily modernised F-35s to respond to the growing challenge of China’s advanced fifth generation and upcoming sixth generation fighters, the latter which are expected to enter service significantly earlier than their American counterparts. The defunding of the U.S. Navy’s F/A-XX sixth generation fighter program, meaning a next generation aircraft for the service may only become available after 2040, could also lead the Navy to increase procurements of the carrier based F-35C variant, and to procure a heavily modernised variant. Thus although Lockheed Martin failed in its bids to develop sixth generation fighters for either the Navy or the Air Force, the high likelihood of major delays to both programs leaves a high likelihood firm’s F-35 will remain the only advanced stealth fighter available to them until close to 2040.