Large Scale Russian Drone and Missile Attack Destroys Three Patriot Missile Launchers and Radar: Air Defence Shortage Worsens

In the late hours of July 21, the Russian Armed Forces launched a large air assault on military and strategic targets in Ukraine, with Ukrainian government sources reporting the launch of 426 drones as well as ballistic and cruise missiles. The scale and frequency of these Russian attacks has continued to grow as the country’s defence sector has tremendously increased the production scales of Geran-2 single use drones and multiple classes of ballistic and cruise missile. Output of the Geran-2 was reported in May to have increased more than tenfold from 300 a month, to over 100 per day, with industry was reported at the time to be on track to be able to produce 500 daily, while output of missiles such as the Kh-101 and 9K720 has increased to several times pre-war levels. These attacks have coincided with a placing of growing pressure on Ukraine’s frontlines, as advancing Russian frontline units have been reinforced following the routing of a Ukrainian assault on Kursk, while the Ukrainian Army lost several of its most elite units and much of its most capable equipment during the failed incursion.

Russian drone and missile strikes have been particularly devastating due to the severe depletion of Ukraine’s air defences, with the destruction of surface-to-air missile systems, and particularly the more capable S-300 and MIM-104 Patriot systems, serving as force multipliers in this regard. Reports from a number of Russian sources indicate that the latest wave of strikes targeted one of Ukraine’s few remaining Patriot systems, destroying three surface-to-air missile launchers and an associated AN/MPQ-65 radar. The location of the system in question, and the drone or missile classes used to destroy it, remain unknown, Patriot systems have taken significant losses since beginning to be used in Ukraine, with these having been confirmed by drone footage on multiple occasions from March 2024. As by far the most high value military assets in Ukrainian service, with a cost of approximately $2.5 billion, the loss of Patriot systems represents a severe blow to the country’s air defence capabilities, particularly at a time when the country’s supporters in the Western world are struggling with major shortages of the systems and unable to easily replace losses.

Ukrainian and Western sources have recently warned that the Patriot is increasingly struggling to intercept strikes by Russian ballistic missiles, highlighting that the missiles have demonstrated greater levels of manoeuvrability, allowing them to evade not only interception, but also detection. Such reports are far from unprecedented, with Ukrainian Air Force spokesman Igor Ignat having highlighted on May 26 the Patriot’s shortcomings intercepting attacks by the Russian Iskander-M ballistic missile system observing: “The Iskander missiles perform evasive manoeuvres in the final phase, thwarting the Patriot’s trajectory calculations… In addition, the Iskander can drop decoys capable of fooling Patriot missiles.” The Russian Armed Forces’ procurement of North Korean ballistic missiles with similarly advanced capabilities, such as the KN-23B, has further increased pressure on Ukraine’s defences, as has the dispatch of tens of thousands of North Korean workers to support efforts to increase drone production in Russia.