‘Aircraft Over Tehran Whenever We Choose’: How Realistic Are Israel’s Plans For Continued War with Iran?

Commander of the Israeli Air Force Major General Tomer Bar has laid out plans to secure future military dominance over Iran, after Israel initiated a brief conflict with the Islamic Republic on June 13 which ended in a ceasefire 11 days later. “If you ask me: ‘Commander, what is the decisive element of victory? Is it Natanz? Is it 80 surface-to-surface missile launchers?’ It is aircraft over Tehran whenever we choose — that’s a significant decisive component,” Bar stated. “Therefore, we need to get there, and we need to create the impact that will make them feel exposed — finished.” His statement followed the issuing of orders by Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz for the country’s armed forces to develop an “enforcement plan” against Iran, which would centre around “maintaining Israel’s air superiority, preventing nuclear advancement and missile production, and responding to Iran for supporting terrorist activities against the State of Israel.” “We will act consistently to thwart threats of this kind,” the minister added, noting that the attacks launched from June 13 were “just the preview of a new Israeli policy.”

The statement by Minister Katz that Israel could respond to acts as legal and common as the manufacture of ballistic missiles, which Iran is currently pursuing on a large scale, by launching air strikes, provides an opening for the Israel Defence Forces to attack the country at any time. Elaborating on how the Israeli Air Force could act to make the Iranian leadership “feel exposed,” General Bar elaborated:

“And if you ask me what will bring us to that point, it’s only one thing: superiority, superiority, and once again — superiority… This is a prolonged battle and campaign of superiority. From sortie to sortie, there’s a powerful logic here. You take everything possible at the start — from detection, the main control posts, to the scattered air defences jumping left and right and extending my range by a few kilometres every morning with some launch the Iranians carry out.”

The possibility of Israel launching further strikes of Iran remains highly questionable, primarily due to the fact that the country was effectively pressured to accept a ceasefire agreement due to sustained Iranian missile attacks on key military and strategic targets across the country. The serious depletion of Israeli missile defences using on a very small fraction of the Iranian arsenal, and Iran’s limited use of advanced new missile classes with features such as carriage of multiple warheads or hypersonic glide vehicles, has highlighted the country’s extreme vulnerability, which is expected to continue to be a primary obstacle to any designs figures in the Israel leadership may have for a re-initiation of hostilities. Reflecting the consensus regarding the extent of the damage to Israeli targets from Iran’s retaliatory missile attacks responding to the prior air strikes, President Donald Trump observed at a recent NATO summit: “Especially those last couple of days, Israel was hit really hard. Those ballistic missiles, boy they took out a lot of buildings.” With the U.S. Army THAAD system deployed to protect Israel alone having at a conservative estimate expended $800 million worth of anti-missile interceptors against Iranian missiles, while other air defence related expenses by the two countries amounted to several billion dollars, these extreme costs supplemented those from the severe damage to strategic targets across Israel caused by the dozens of Iranian missiles that reached their targets.

While Iranian ballistic missile production, its nuclear activities, and its support for non-state paramilitary groups such as Hezbollah and the Yemeni Ansurulah Coalition are all ongoing, and all represent key conditions for Israel to launch attacks under the plan laid out by Minister Katz, Israel’s options to inflict pain on Iran using air strikes without suffering unacceptable damage itself remains limited. There is a signifiant possibility that Israel’s position in this regard will significantly further worsen, as Iran not only cracks down hard on Israeli-backed paramilitary groups within its borders which played key roles in supporting Israel’s strikes, but also as it continues to expand its arsenal of newer classes of ballistic missiles. The possibility of Iran further strengthening its air defences, such as with the procurement of Chinese HQ-9B surface-to-air missile systems or J-10C fighters, also remains significant, and could be a game changer for Israel’s ability to penetrate and attack Iranian targets using its own fighter fleet.